Trading in the New Economy
Australian stock market educator and fund manager Garry Davis provides top-down insights into the global economic environment and its impact on financial markets, from the US to the ASX. The podcast includes weekly commentary on indices, bonds, spreads, currencies, commodities, and what smart money is doing, along with short educational segments. It is mostly taken from a weekly YouTube show and aims to deliver unbiased, logical guidance for succeeding in the new economy.
Episodes
The Bear Case Weakens - But Here's the Catch
The bear case for US equities is weakening as broader market participation improves. But that is not an all-clear, and a sudden correction remains a credible risk.
In this update, Garry Davis examines three possible market paths over the next 3, 6 and 12 months, weighing what the evidence supports against the risks that could change the picture.
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Market Breadth Is Getting Worse - How Far Is Too Far?
US market breadth has deteriorated sharply, but the headline indices and semiconductors still refuse to confirm a major breakdown.
In this update, Garry Davis examines what worsening market breadth, rising yields and widening credit spreads are telling investors - and why the strength in technology means the bearish case remains incomplete.
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AI Might Kill Us All… But Seriously, Follow the Money
AI fears are generating extraordinary headlines, but the more useful question for investors is what the evidence and money flows are actually saying.
At the same time, the market warning from two weeks ago has not disappeared. Macro stress remains, although the confirmations needed for a serious systemic unwind are still missing. Garry Davis explains why that distinction matters.
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The Warning Still Stands - But Something Has Changed
The risks I warned about last week have not disappeared. But the market has just passed two important stress tests far more calmly than logic suggested it would.
In this update, Garry Davis explains what changed, why the feared chain reaction did not unfold, and why the next step is to rebuild exposure only as the market provides positive evidence.
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I Rarely Do This... But a Serious Market Shock Is Now in Play
For the first time in a long time, there is a credible pathway to a much more serious market outcome. That does not mean a crash is being predicted.
In this update, Garry Davis explains why rapidly rising bond yields, shifting global money flows and a highly leveraged financial system have increased the risk - while several vital market confirmations are still missing.
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Vi
Friday’s Market Shock Wasn’t What It Seemed
Friday's sudden market reversal looked ugly on the surface, but several of the signals underneath told a very different story.
In this update, Garry Davis looks beyond the headline selloff to the bond market, volatility, market breadth and stock-specific money flows - while also examining what this week's earnings told us about AI demand and increasingly selective markets.
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Could Rising Bond Yields Trigger the Next Market Reset?
Bond yields are moving higher again, but the major equity indices are not yet signalling a broad market breakdown. That disconnect is worth understanding before it becomes urgent.
In this update, Garry Davis looks at what rising US Treasury yields are telling us, why the growing competition for capital matters, and how investors can prepare without trying to predict when — or even whether
Gold Breaks Out as Opportunities Explode Across Markets
The market message has turned strongly more positive, with improving breadth in the US, a much better tone across multiple sectors, and an explosive breakout in gold.
In this update, Garry Davis looks at the broader change of character across markets, what the latest money flows are signalling, and why being organised still matters when volatility can return quickly.
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This Market Is Punishing Guesswork: Here’s How to Stay in Control
Markets are rewarding discipline and punishing anyone trying to make sense of every headline in real time.
In this update, Garry Davis explains why AI and semiconductor weakness, rising bond yields, gold’s tightening setup and a highly selective earnings season all point to the same conclusion: get organised before the market forces you to react.
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AI’s Biggest Test Has Begun: Should You Still Buy the Dip?
AI earnings season has begun, and the market is no longer accepting spending promises at face value.
In this update, Garry Davis examines what Google’s result and the market response are signalling about hyperscaler capital expenditure, free cash flow and the changing leadership across US markets.
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The first m
Was Friday the Pause Before the Next Leg Down?
Friday’s sharp intraday recovery showed that buyers are still present. It did not confirm that the market has formed a low.
In this update, Garry Davis explains why forced selling and leverage are creating unusually fast market moves, what the next six weeks of major earnings could reveal, and why a repeatable process matters more than predicting the top or bottom.
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Market
The AI Trade Has Rotated. Has Gold Bottomed?
The AI trade has rotated, and gold may be getting closer to a bottom.
In this update, Garry Davis explains why semiconductor risk has risen in the short term, where money is moving, and what still needs to happen before gold can be treated as a confirmed recovery.
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The long-term semiconductor thesis remains compelling, but the character of money flows has changed. Wider sw
Wild Markets, Scary Headlines: My Calm & Rational Response
A wild week in markets produced no shortage of scary headlines.
In this update, Garry Davis explains why investors should be careful about jumping to conclusions too quickly, and why calm, rational analysis still matters most when volatility rises.
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This week’s update steps back from the noise and focuses on what actually changed, what did not, and what investors sho
AI Trade Phase 2 Begins: Q3 Earnings to Split Winners From Losers
The AI trade has entered a new phase.
Micron has helped prove that AI infrastructure demand is real, but the market is now asking a harder question: which companies can turn that demand into genuine economic returns?
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video
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In this week's update, Garry Davis looks at why Q3 earnings are now pivotal for the AI trade,
Tech Surges While Commodities Crack: Time to Rebalance?
Tech is still leading, commodities are under pressure, and the US dollar has just added a new complication.
That makes this a useful time to step back and ask whether your portfolio is still balanced for the market in front of you, not the market you would prefer to see.
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video
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In this week’s update, Garry Davis look
Wild Week in Markets: Gold, Commodities & the Next Move
It’s been one of the wildest weeks many investors will have seen for some time, with sharp swings in sentiment leaving plenty of people wondering what comes next.
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44VozqCD89c
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In this week’s update, Garry
Tech & Commodities Get Smashed. Is This the Top?
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Friday was an ugly session across parts of the US market, with tech, AI-related stocks and commodities all coming under pressure.
But was it panic selling? Or was it a normal, healthy re
Top Forming or Just Getting Started? How to Buy Rebounds
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After months of volatility, forced selling, war-driven uncertainty, energy disruption and pressure on the Australian economy, some of the strongest rebounds have already started to unfol
Markets Pricing Imminent Peace: What If They’re Wrong?
Markets are pricing a relatively positive outcome from the US-Iran conflict, but what happens if peace does not come quickly?
This week I look at the Strait of Hormuz, global supply chain risk, energy uncertainty, inflation pressure, and why the next few weeks may be important for markets.
At the same time, the US technology sector continues to surge, with AI-related earnings and capital
Why US Stocks Keep Rising While the ASX Lags
The US market continues to push higher, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all showing strong momentum. But the ASX is lagging, and Australian investors need to understand why.
This week, I look at the earnings strength driving US markets, the sectors showing leadership, and why the Australian market is struggling to keep pace.
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video a
This Rally Seems Crazy: Until You See these Money Flows
Middle East risk remains unresolved, energy security is still a serious issue, and many investors are struggling to reconcile the headlines with what markets are actually doing.
But the weight of money is making a major statement.
In this week’s update, I look at the strength in the NASDAQ, the role of semiconductors, the earnings support behind many US stocks, and the key signals that co
Forget Logic, This is the Formula That’s Working
Forget logic. Right now, that may be one of the most important investing lessons.
The market is doing what it often does at major turning points: ignoring the headlines and following the money. While the macro backdrop still looks uncertain, price action in the US has remained incredibly strong, and that tells us something important.
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video at&nbs
A Significant Pivot Point in Markets: We’re Buying
Markets may be at a significant pivot point and we've been buying for several weeks in the Insiders Club, but that does not mean investors should throw discipline out the window.
What matters now is not reacting emotionally to every headline. It is identifying where money is flowing, understanding which businesses are largely immune from the bigger picture risks we cannot control, and the
Australian Energy Threat: Stocks & Sectors to Win & Lose
There is a major threat to Australian investors that most people are still underestimating.
In this follow up to Sunday’s market update, I go deeper into why Australia’s energy vulnerability could become a serious drag on parts of the share market, and why investors need to think differently if they want to protect capital and stay positioned for opportunity.
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The Risk Australian Investors Still Aren’t Pricing In
This week’s market update tackles an issue I believe many Australian investors are still underestimating.Australia is an energy exporter, but we are also heavily dependent on imported fuel. That leaves large parts of the economy exposed in a way that could flow through to company earnings, even if the current conflict eases faster than expected.
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Finally the Market Breaks: The Low Risk Window Gets Closer
The market has now broken more decisively, and while that is uncomfortable for many investors, it may also be moving us closer to a better low risk window.
In this week’s update, I explain why this shift matters, why opportunity does not disappear in falling markets, and why mindset is so important when fear starts to dominate the narrative.
For the full experience, watch the YouTube vide
The Best Rebound Opportunities Are Emerging: Here’s One
Markets like this are where most investors get pulled furthest away from good decision-making.
When volatility spikes and headlines dominate, the natural temptation is to either freeze or try to predict the exact bottom. I think both approaches miss the point.
What matters far more is having a repeatable process: knowing how to assess risk, how to think about bottom formations, and how to
Why You Should Stop Worrying About the US-Iran War
Recent market volatility and the headlines around the US-Iran war have understandably rattled investors.
But does this really change the long term opportunity set, or is it another period where fear is creating better entry points for quality stocks?
In this week’s update, I explain why I believe investors need more perspective right now, what past market shocks can teach us, and why tryi
Wartime Markets: Why This Volatility May Be Opportunity
The dominant narrative right now is fear. War headlines, sharp reversals, heavy commodity volatility and plenty of noise from the media. But that does not automatically mean investors are looking at a systemic market breakdown.
In this week’s update, I explain why a lot of what we are seeing still fits the normal early signature of wartime markets. There is forced selling. There is rotati
US-Iran War: What It Means for Gold, Silver, Energy, Tech
When markets are driven by headlines, prediction becomes the enemy. My focus is money flow first, fundamentals second. Price tells you where capital is actually moving.
The goal is not to be right about geopolitics. The goal is to be aligned with the dominant flow, with clear risk defined if the market disagrees.
Markets often react in two phases: an initial risk-off impulse, then a reass
Winners and Losers Splitting Fast: Don’t Get Caught on the Wrong Side
Markets are dealing with a rare mix of uncertainty drivers, and tariff headlines are back in play. In this environment, prediction is a fast way to get whipsawed.
The key is to recognise the two-speed market early: stay with leadership, avoid the weak that keep failing, and build a target list so you can act when the next high probability setups appear. I also cover why gold and silver ar
Huge Volatility to Define 2026: What’s Working & What’s Not?
When volatility rises, most investors look for a story to make them feel certain. That’s understandable, but it’s also where people get trapped. The market is forward-looking, and when the pace of change accelerates, the narrative can lag badly.
So the strategy is to simplify: focus on the weekly trend, respect where the money is flowing now, and adjust weightings accordingly. Fundamental
2022-Style Reset Setting Up? Metals Strong LT: What I’m Buying (and Avoiding)
In 2021 and into 2022 we saw leadership roll over, relative strength relationships deteriorate, and risk preferences rotate toward defensives. I’m seeing similar “warning type” behaviour in key ratios again. That does not guarantee the same outcome, but it does tell me the weight of evidence has shifted and we should stay selective.
We have had an aggressive unwind fuelled by leverage and
Friday’s Shock Sell Off: How Deep Can This Go (and What I’m Watching)
Friday’s sell off was a shock to the system, and it matters because confidence just broke.
When that happens, markets often shift into volatile, stop start conditions.
The goal is not to predict the next headline. The goal is to follow a process so you can protect capital and be ready for the opportunity this reset can create.
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I’m as Bullish as I’ve Been in Years (Here’s the Evidence)
Markets are facing an unusual cocktail right now: geopolitical flashpoints, bond market stress, and plenty of headline risk.
Yet price action has stayed surprisingly calm, and that matters.
In this week’s update I explain why this can be a bullish signal, what I’m watching beneath the indices, and how I think about rotation, selectivity, and risk control when conditions are constructive.
Commodity Trend is Unfolding: Where I'm Fishing in 2026
A major rotation in global capital has been driving powerful moves across commodities, and the opportunity looks likely to keep unfolding through 2026. The key is not the headline. It’s having a plan, reading the money flows, and managing volatility properly.
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5IaOpG44gs
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2026 Market Outlook: Why My Plan Has Changed
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I’m extremely bullish about 20
The 7 Mega Trends to Dominate Markets in 2026
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Markets can look crystal clear
Materials Are Taking Control: The Rotation You Can’t Ignore
Market leadership has shifted. Tech and semis wobbled, but the broader market held up, and that usually signals rotation, not exit.
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gw_XQmT1DZs
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In this week’s update I cover:
Why the AI and semicond
Boom ASX Niche I’m Predicting for 2026 - Before the Crowd Catches On
This week I unpack why I think a very specific corner of the ASX may have a genuine window of strength into 2026, and how I am positioning around it.
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUaIrtb7hpM
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In this update I cover:
The gl
Bounce Back Was Fast – Now I’m Pivoting Here…
The market didn’t waste any time bouncing – but the leadership looks very different to a few weeks ago.
In this update I walk through why I think the recent sell-off now looks like a classic bull market shakeout, not the start of a major top – and more importantly, how I’m pivoting portfolios from here.
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video at https://www.youtube.com/watch
What the Odds Really Say About a Bigger Fall
Fear of a bigger correction is building, but the market’s message is more nuanced than the headlines suggest. After a powerful tech-led run, the character of the price action has clearly changed – so what do the odds really say about a larger fall from here?
In this week’s update I look at the current pullback through the lens of probabilities and preparation, not prediction. I walk throu
This Isn’t a Crash – It’s the Valuation Reset We Needed
Recent volatility has a lot of investors asking whether this is the start of a crash. In this week’s update I explain why, in my view, what we’re seeing is better described as a valuation reset and change of character in the most expensive parts of the market, not the beginning of a major bear market.
High PE technology and AI leaders have finally flinched, money is rotating into other se
Headlines Screaming “Top” - Price Action Doesn’t
Tops are processes, not moments. When breadth holds up and leadership rotates instead of collapsing, the higher-probability read is a mid-trend pause.
In the video I walk through the signals I track to identify tops - distribution, momentum failure across leaders, and deterioration that persists - versus what looks like controlled pullback and rotation.
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US-China Truce: Headlines vs Reality (The Investing Perspective)
US–China have signaled another “truce”. Markets usually care more about earnings, liquidity and where money’s flowing.
In this week’s episode I unpack what matters, what doesn’t, and where the opportunities may sit across semiconductors, energy and metals. I also outline the conditions that can mark a bottom in gold.
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video at https://www.spe
Gold Pullback, AI “Bubble”? Here’s the Truth
Gold has pulled back and the “AI bubble” chorus is getting loud again. Context matters. In this update I put the headlines aside and look at money flows, leadership and earnings to separate signal from noise.
You’ll see why a gold reset can be healthy, how AI valuations compare with history, and the simple process I use to avoid prediction traps and focus on high-probability setups.
For t
A Wild Week: What the US Signals for Aussie Investors
A wild week on Wall Street spilled into everything—equities, bonds, and metals. In this video I walk through how I’m reading the volatility regime, why money flows matter more than headlines, and what it can mean for the ASX. We’ll also look at gold and silver’s relative strength and how I’m handling entries, stops and position size while the tape chops.
For the full experience, watch the
Did Trump Just Trigger the Next Sell-Off?
Friday’s reversal jolted investors. Tariff headlines collided with a stretched market and nerves showed up fast. In this video I unpack what matters from here: breadth, leadership, liquidity and the levels that separate a routine dip from a genuine correction.
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video at www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRQb4el78O8
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Doomsayers Are Missing the Real Story
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This week’s update at a glanc
Why the Next Tier of AI Stocks Are Suddenly Dirt Cheap
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AI’s evolution has just taken another dramatic leap forward. The mega players are investing hundreds of billions into data centres, power supply, and partnerships — but the real story is what this means for the next tier of AI companies.
Many of these stocks were undervalued and underfun
Why Most Investors Stay Average (And How to Break Free)
How your thinking needs to change to be a great investor
The incredible history of gains following start of rate cuts
Small caps finally getting "the love"
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AI Models for Investment Advice - A Good Idea?
Al robots for investing - a good idea?
The folly of trading what "should be" & not "what is"
Why this rally can continue
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Very Best vs The Rest - Don’t Miss this Wave
Volatility surges - is this a new "normal"?
Growth is getting the accolades it deserves
Where will you get your financial literacy to combat Al scams?
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You Know I Hate Making Strong Predictions, BUT…Wow
Markets get what they crave
Very hard not to be bullish MT
Precious metals on the move
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Market Outlooks - PME, AI, Gold, Copper, Lithium, PLS
US market leadership narrows
The local market sees lots of volatility around earnings
The tricky balance between high growth & valuation
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Scary Macro Fundamentals vs Big Earnings Growth
Trump's agenda causing market mayhem - many ST moves have no meaning
The benefits of an open mind & confirmation
Absence of clarity about process - this market will "skin you alive"
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Market Correction Highly Likely - How Far, How Long?
Markets get a reality check
Fed sat still, but policy changes are coming
Now a correction starts - to be cushioned by rate cuts
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The Ultimate Blueprint for Successful Investing
Get the process right + discipline, good outcomes will follow
Critical Fed meeting next week
Same message - no action except heightened awareness / readiness
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Sentiment Strongly Positive, Ride it Until it Changes
US earnings season stronger start than forecast
Critical Fed meeting next week
Market character has not changed - so keep going
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Global Markets Are Changing - What You Must Do Now
Bitcoin, silver, copper, rare earths, platinum the impressive movers
New multi-decade highs in copper is technically a big deal
Tariff impact on inflation about to be seen
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Next Market Crash - When, and How to Spot It
Difficult to be "caught out" if you have someone diligently watching
Equity markets set new highs
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Markets Headed Higher, Unless...
USD trend is ominous for all asset classes
US / China trade deal fires markets
The powerful lessons of 2025
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US Bombs Iran - What Should You Do Next?
Cautious optimism in face of geopolitical uncertainties
Which commodities are performing strongest?
Is it time to adjust portfolios?
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How Middle East Tensions Could Impact Global Markets
Markets doing what they always do at the start of serious conflict
Oil & gold surging
Otherwise, a mix of positive & negatives events
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Silver at a Historical Ratio - Why it’s Almost Certain to Skyrocket
A big lesson in LT investing
US deficits won't be cut - what gains a big advantage?
Silver finally gets its turn
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Rising Inflation Appears Fundamentally Unavoidable
Rising inflation appears fundamentally unavoidable
Best form of defense .. is attack
Gold & Bitcoin on the march
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Market Recovery Complete, But Danger Still Lurks
Markets recover but key aspects must be watched
US credit rating downgraded - will this impact markets?
Gold drops on move away from safe-havens
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Can’t Miss Episode for Serious Investors
Sentiment moves more positive & big potential US opportunity
What it takes to be a consistently successful investor
Gold on the rebound
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Which Stocks will Outperform in 2025?
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Correction complete, but is it premature? Don't make big bets
Forget traditional diversification - success will always be about a narrow field of quality at a good price
Managing risk remains the primary focus
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All Signs Pointing Up…Manage Risk, But Don’t Wait
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Aussie stocks outperforming the US - who would have thought
A willingness to take risks has returned
Is this just a minor & healthy stumble for gold?
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Beware of Dangers, but Great Opportunities Are Here
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The best way to negotiate the gross uncertainty
What are the highest probability plays?
What sector has the most compelling value & outlook?
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Closer to the Bottom - What Stocks to Buy First?
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Is the worst behind us - is this the bottom?
It just has to be quality G.A.R.P.
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Worst Falls Since Covid - What You Must Do Now
Valuation reset is done - now for the next phase
Liberation Day - Trump liberates investors from their capital
Keep your head - you'll be fine
Gold caught up in the unwind
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When Will this Predictable Market Correction End?
Index bear market reinforced
Laser focus on opportunities is the key
AUD gold closes in on $5,000
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Market Heading Down, But Great Stocks are Turning
Chart patterns confirm that a lot of investors still want to sell
Sentiment has overtaken fundamentals - is the value reset done?
The current investing dilemma
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Are We Close to a Bottom? Doesn’t Look Like It
Plenty of high conviction opportunities building
Valuation reset playing out on script
Go go gold - it's the uncertainty
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqQQXRIDuOg
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Not the Bottom Yet, but What Stocks will Bounce First?
No question about a major Change of Character for US markets
What stocks are likely to fall less & rebound first?
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How Far Could Stock Markets Keep Falling?
No doubt the market character has changed
Is it time for major adjustments?
How to get the big edge
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGMRjqZQjKQ
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The Investing Landscape has Changed - What to do now?
Market realities bite - valuation reset
Time to move up the quality scale
No precious metals reversal yet
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDUozGpa7KU
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Get Ready for a Significant Market Disruption
Have markets gone mad?
Path of least resistance is firmly higher, BUT...
And is this a significant precious metals reversal?
For the full experience, watch the YouTube video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8WVJ4yIHLk
$1 MEMBERSHIP - for more in depth market commentary, sector analysis and education plus weekly stock recommendations, join our $1 Trial of Portfolio Analyst – http
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